Technical and scientific advances in the past 10 years have made it easier to forecast big storms and warn of potentially dangerous weather, but meteorologists say it could be decades before they can accurately predict freak events like the flash floods of August 2007 that killed eight people in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

In terms of overall forecasting, we do pretty well in terms of knowing when theres a threat of heavy rain, said Bill Graul, meteorologist for WKBT in La Crosse. The problem I think is always going to be, especially in our lifetime, in pinpointing where that train of storms is going to set up. Thats always going to be a problem.

Forecasters point to two technological advances at the National Weather Service dual polarization radar and new satellites that provide a much clearer picture of whats happening in the skies.

Installed in 2012, dual-pol radar uses both horizontal and vertical waves that better estimate the size and shape of particles in the air, which can help meteorologists distinguish between hail and fat raindrops, and thus know when and where heavy rains are falling. The GOES-16 satellite, launched earlier this year, delivers higher resolution images that make it easier to see systems forming.

Were able to see more meteorological features in a faster time frame than weve ever been able to see before, said Frank Pereira, a meteorologist with the national Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, which issues guidance to the Weather Services 122 forecast offices, such as the one in La Crosse.

Pereira said scientists are now learning how to plug that satellite data into the computer models used in forecasting.

National Weather Service meteorologist Dave Schmidt said the biggest improvement for his organization is training. Each forecast station has a scientific operations officer, or SOO.

He keeps us on our toes with training, trying to keep us on the cutting edge of how to utilize this evolving science, Schmidt said. We never stop learning. We just try to keep evolving with the science.

Still, meteorologists say while they have a good idea whats going to happen seven to 10 days out, predicting exactly when and where storms systems will form and train as they did in 2007 is a different matter.

When youre talking about a high-impact event across a narrow, localized area, were not going to be able to accurately predict that very far in advance. Were still on the time scale of probably hours when it comes to something of that magnitude and locality, Pereira said. There are so many aspects of the atmosphere that were trying to model and predict. Its such a complicated system.

The problem is compounded by the Driftless regions topography, where runoff from a 6-inch rainfall can turn dry runs into raging rivers in just minutes.

After the Mississippi River flood of 2001, La Crosse County Emergency Manager Keith Butler took pictures to show people what to expect the next time the river reaches 4.4 feet above flood stage. But theres nothing to prepare people for when creeks take out bridges or hillsides liquify.

WXOW meteorologist Dan Breeden said he expects forecasting to get better as meteorologists refine computer modeling of the new data, but progress has been slower than he expected when he started his career 35 years ago.

Were better at it incrementally, but there hasnt been anything over the last 10 years to say aha, weve got this, Breeden said.

Graul notes that advances in communication and social media have also played a role in improving public safety.

On the night of the 2007 storm, Graul said, it was hard for him to get information about what was happening on the ground. Now with ubiquitous cell phone cameras and social media sites like Twitter, Facebook and Instagram, hes bombarded with crowd-sourced information any time theres a storm.

The information flow these days is probably 10 times what it was, he said. That would have been a huge help 10 years ago.

And that communication goes both ways: with a new WKBT mobile weather app, Graul can draw a box around a particular valley, neighborhood or even a block and instantly alert users in that area to potential hazards.

But warnings only go so far, Breeden said, if forecasters cant convince people to heed them.

Im not sure thats improved a lot, he said. People are people when they want to get home they drive through water.

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Despite advances, freak storms, human behavior challenge weather ... - La Crosse Tribune