Missouri came into the game as 14.5-point underdogs and left as 4-point victors. At no point in the week leading up to the game did any of us here at Rock M, myself included, think that Missouri would pull off the upset but I did lay out a blueprint on how it could be done. I want to dive deeper into the actual keys that won the day but, first, I want to go over the keys that I laid out.
In keeping with the format, lets take a quick look at the advanced box score first:
Im going to dive into this a lot as we go through this piece but, until then, here it is in full form. Its...just...beautiful.
Lets revisit my keys for the game:
Missouri hadnt been the most explosive offense while playing Alabama and Tennessee; in that vein I thought it would be a huge sign of improvement - and an indicator of Mizzous ability to hang with LSU - if the passing game was able to generate at least 4 explosive plays.
The offense did, indeed, produced four explosive plays through the air and added two explosive runs for good measure:
I cant remember the last time Mizzou fans had seen so many big plays from the good guys. More of that, please.
Winner: Missouri
Larry Rountree III has been both efficient (against Bama) and explosive (against Tennessee) this year but I postured that the success of the running game would be mostly on the Tiger offensive line. I thought that, If the offensive line is able to create four-yard opportunities 40% of the time, then the Tigers were getting enough opportunities to hold possession and keep LSUs offense on the sideline.
Um...Missouris offensive line created 4-yards for Tiger backs...*cough*...on 63.3% of rushes.
For reference: the last time Missouris opportunity rate was over even 50% was against Ole Miss last year when the line opened up 4-yard holes 55% of the time. And that was against a piss-poor Rebel defense.
LSUs defense might be actually bad but hitting a 63% opportunity rate is absurd, regardless of opponent quality. Bobby Lawrence/Zeke Powell, Xavier Delgado, Michael Maietti, Case Cook, and Larry Borom had themselves a mother forking day.
Winner: Missouri
I was hoping for 5 scoring opportunities with 4.8 points per opportunity which would have lead to 24 points.
The Tigers created 8 scoring opportunities and averaged 5.6 points per visit. Hell yes.
Winner: Missouri
Two goals for this category: I needed to see LSU give up 2 sacks and have a blitz downs success rate under 20%. What happened?
LSU gave up 2 sacks and went 1 for 8 on blitz downs, which comes out to 12.5% success rate. Boom.
Winner: Missouri
I humbly suggested Missouri keeps LSUs third down percentage under 48% and generate 15 passing downs with less than 30% success rate to even have a chance of winning.
LSU went 0-10 on third down. Lmao.
And in case you were wondering, LSUs success rate in passing down was 6 for 19, 31.5%. Thats pretty dang close so Im counting it!
Winner: Missouri
In addition to the keys above, here are some other isolated things that keyed the upset win on Saturday:
Success Rate per quarter looks at the percentage of successful plays an offense has in a given quarter. It gives you a good idea of the flow of the game and how well each side was moving the ball.
These were the four best quarters the Missouri offense but together all season. By far. The best quarterly success rate they were able to scrap together before this game was 56% in the 4th quarter against Alabama...that was mostly helmed by Connor Bazelak.
LSUs second quarter was a disaster in regards to moving the ball but gained an easy 10 points thanks to untimely Missouri turnovers. And while quarters 3 and 4 saw them recover a little bit, most of their yards were empty and unable to keep up with the chains. The only issue is that LSU had godly starting field position which let them hang around.
I mentioned 3rd downs specifically in my preview but...seriously: if a team never converts a 3rd-down it is really hard for that team to win a game. The average LSU down and distance was 3rd-and-9, an incredible average considering they also averaged 7.6 yards on first down. What gives? Well...about half of their first down plays were incomplete passes or stuffed runs, the other half were 8/10/17/28-yard passing plays. So while the average finished relatively high the majority of their 1st-down plays went nowhere.
For Missouri, heres an incredible stat: Missouri averaged 9.4 yards per 1st-down play and only had zero or negative yardage on two first down plays. So, unlike LSU, it was a legit 9.4-yard average. That meant that the Good Guy Tigers were converting early and getting multi-play drives going to at least move the ball and keep the LSU offense on the sideline.
Myles Brennan attempted 48 passes with two sacks which meant LSU had 50 pass plays. Brennan had a 60.4% completion rate but a 45.8% success rate. That means that, while his receivers caught the ball 60% of the time, they were only getting enough yards to keep up with down and distance 45% of the time. That equates to a lot of meaningless yardage and wasted plays.
Connor Bazelak attempted 34 passes with one sack which meant Missouri had 35 pass plays. Bazelak had a 85.3% completion rate and 62.8% success rate. Yes, thats incredibly difficult to do. And yes, LSUs secondary is stinky bad BUT, as BK pointed out last week, if Missouri receivers didnt drop so many dang balls in the Tennessee game Bazelak would have had an 81% completion rate against the Volunteers so, clearly, the kid can do that against excellent defenses as well.
Also, Bazelak had more passes go for 20+ yards (6) than incompletions (5). Lol.
With most of its starters out and the depth perilously thin, Missouris defensive line completely negated any hope of an LSU running game. And, yes, LSU is now more of an spread-ish air-raid team than the Les-Miles-smashy-smash offenses of yore, but when they needed to get yards on the ground the LSU offensive line was crumpled backwards and their running backs had no where to go. Oh, and the blocked field goal was generated by Missouris d-line AND that whole goal line stand that saved the game. Tip of the cap to the outgunned, outmanned Missouri defensive front.
This is less of a concern and more of an observation of a trend: Larry Rountree III only runs on 1st down.
So far this season Rountree has run the ball 50 times. 27 of those runs have come on 1st-down. Again, Im not saying its a bad thing, per se, but if I can figure that out after watching these games four times a piece so I guarantee a hungry GA grinding for a position coach spot will figure this out on Hour-23 of watching Missouri film.
Missouri fumbled the ball five times and lost three of them. Missouri also defensed 9 passes and got zero interceptions.
Turnovers are luck based - regardless of what some coaches might tell you - and Missouri continues to be one of the worst turnover-lucky teams in the world. In three games there have been nine fumbles and the Tigers have recovered three of them (teams usually recover 50% of fumbles); likewise, they have defensed 15 passes and picked off none of them; teams typically pick off about 20% of passes that are defensed meaning they should have three interceptions by now. Hmm.
LSU had more possessions, ran more plays, had more scoring opportunities, had a +16 yard advantage in starting field position, were +3 in turnover margin...and lost. They lost because they couldnt convert a 3rd-down, couldnt run the ball, and had terrible success rates, Oh, and their secondary did not know what they were doing at any given point.
It takes a lot of skill and luck to upset a team that is a 14.5-point favorite, and this exact opportunity - ranked defending national champion that is actually kind of bad but no one knows it yet - will rarely present itself again. But Missouri made the most of its opportunities, played out of its skulls, and ended the day with a statement win. Football can be fun!
Here is the original post:
Beyond the Box Score: Anatomy of an Upset - Rock M Nation
- Grey's Anatomy Season 21 Sneak Peek Teases Jesse Williams' Return as Jackson Avery: 'Welcome Back' (Exclusive) - PEOPLE - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy's Jesse Williams Accuses Ex of "Gatekeeping" Their Kids in Custody Case - E! NEWS - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- The muscular-deep fascial system: new findings on the anatomy of the structure attached to the superior orbital margin - Nature.com - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- No neigh-sayers: Live horses join first-day veterinary students for anatomy lecture in Hungary - The Associated Press - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Jesse Williams reunites with 'Grey's Anatomy' star in new season of the hit medial drama - ABC7 Chicago - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- A sex-stratified analysis of the genetic architecture of human brain anatomy - Nature.com - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Greys Anatomy EP Teases Huge Consequences in the Wake of Meredith and Catherines Showdown - TVLine - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- 'Grey's Anatomy' Adds 'A Million Little Things' Alum Floriana Lima for Season 21 - TV Insider - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy's 17-Year Returning Character Proves It's Time For Cristina Yang To Come Back - Screen Rant - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Greys Anatomy Season 21 Promo Reveals Jacksons Return to Save the Day? - TVLine - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy Season 21's Returning Fan-Favorite Character Is Key To The Biggest Meredith Story - Screen Rant - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Anatomy of a Recession: Speaking of the election | Franklin Templeton - Beyond Bulls & Bears - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Take the First Look at Season 21 of Greys Anatomy - Shondaland.com - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy Season 21: Everything we know about cast, premiere date, where to watch - The Economic Times - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Anatomy of Future Crime: A call out for legislation concerning the new risks of AI - New Jersey Globe | New Jersey Politics - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Greys Anatomy Cast 2024: Every Change for Season 21 Revealed, Including Actor Exits, New Characters, & Who Will Return - Just Jared - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- The Anatomy of An Inning: Richard Fitts Can Help the Red Sox - Over The Monster - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy actors on the importance of Ben and Bailey's relationship - Popverse - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Greys Anatomy star Kate Walsh to campaign for Harris-Walz in Arizona - The Arizona Republic - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Anatomy of an intervention - Prospect Magazine - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Anatomy of a Premier League hat-trick: Erling Haaland vs Sergio Aguero - The Athletic - The New York Times - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- The anatomy of Lando Norris on pole and the seven times its gone wrong - The Independent - September 15th, 2024 [September 15th, 2024]
- Dueling Pinocchios: The Anatomy of a Lie as Reflected in Two Presidents - The National Herald - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- This Greys Anatomy Couple Has the Most Devastating Romance And Its Not Who You Think - Collider - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- How Station 19 Connects to the Rest of the Grey's Anatomy Universe - CBR - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- The La Voulte-sur-Rhne Konservat-Lagersttte reveals the male and female internal anatomy of the Middle Jurassic clawed lobster Eryma ventrosum -... - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- The Anatomy of a Moment: The Hurricanes and Oilers Go to War to Begin the 2006 Final - Cardiac Cane - August 5th, 2024 [August 5th, 2024]
- FDSH to get advanced anatomy teaching tool - Fort Dodge Messenger - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Anatomy of a rebellion: why Keir Starmers first brush with parliamentary revolt over two-child benefit cap is a symbolic moment - The Conversation - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Skylar Astin praises Grey's Anatomy writers for that 'sex bear' plotline: 'They can write anything' - Entertainment Weekly News - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- "This Is The Guy For Jo": Grey's Anatomy Star Pushed For One Guest Actor To Stay Longer - Screen Rant - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- HALIPHRON Announce Anatomy Of Darkness Album; Teaser Streaming - bravewords.com - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Anatomy of an exit: Biden pulls out of US presidential race after intense pressure - FRANCE 24 English - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Puzzling anatomy of Trump's would-be assassin - Newsday - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- The Anatomy of a Swing State Harris vs. Trump July 24th | 1290 WJNO | The Brian Mudd Show - 1290 WJNO - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Exclusive Interview: Riah On Bed And Greys Anatomy - The Honey POP - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Anatomy of a fall: Biden passes the torch - El Paso Inc. - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Did Alex Karev actually have a good Greys Anatomy ending? - Screen Rant - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Anatomy of a fall: Biden passes the torch - The Caledonian-Record - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy season 21: Release date speculation, cast news, and latest information - RadioTimes - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Why Meredith and Cristina Beat Meredith and Derek on 'Grey's Anatomy' - Vanity Fair - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy Fan Favorite Eyed to Return Full-Time After End of Station 19 - CBR - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy Season 20 Finale Review: No Shortage of Drama - CBR - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- It's Time For Grey's Anatomy To Move On From Meredith - Screen Rant - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- The Grey's Anatomy Boys Went Viral On TikTok For Recreating 'I'm Just Ken,' And They Really Brought The Kenergy To ... - CinemaBlend - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Is Miranda Bailey Leaving Grey's Anatomy? What Happened to Chandra Wilson? - Soaps.com - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- 9 'Grey's Anatomy' Questions We Need Answered in Season 21: That Near Kiss, Richard's Future & More - TV Insider - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- 'Grey's Anatomy' Season 21 Cast Updates: 2 Actors Leaving, 16 Stars Expected to Return With a Catch, 1 Former Star ... - Just Jared - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- 'Grey's Anatomy': Kim Raver Reflects on Teddy's 'Incredible' Romances With Henry, Owen & More - TV Insider - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Station 19 Finale Sets Up Ben Warren To Return To Grey's Anatomy, But Will He Really? - CinemaBlend - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- The 'Grey's Anatomy' Finale Is a 'Fiery' End to Season 20 - Glamour - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Station 19 star to return to Greys Anatomy after finale as producers try to figure out a way to avoid ca... - The US Sun - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Anatomy of a fake story: How anti-immigration candidates spread false information to boost their profile - The Irish Times - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy: The 10 Worst Character Exits - Den of Geek - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- What Happened on the 'Grey's Anatomy' 20th Season Finale? - Pajiba Entertainment News - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Is There a Greys Anatomy Season 20 Episode 11 Release Date or Part 2? - ComingSoon.net - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Does 'Grey's Anatomy' Come On Before 'Station 19'? - We Got This Covered - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Who's Leaving Grey's Anatomy After Season 20? Who's Coming Back in 2025? - Soaps.com - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- 'Station 19' Star Jason George Eyeing 'Grey's Anatomy' Return Following Spinoff's Finale - PopCulture.com - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Lightspeed Newsletter: Anatomy of a token launch - Blockworks - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy: Miranda And The Interns Took A Stand In Season 20 Finale, But Here's Why I Think Their Grand ... - CinemaBlend - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- How to watch Greys Anatomy season finale for free - MassLive.com - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Ellen Pompeo Insists on Staying 'Involved' in 'Grey's Anatomy' - Closer Weekly - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Jason George to Return to 'Grey's Anatomy' After 'Station 19 Ending - Just Jared - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Is There A Grey's Anatomy Season 21 Release Date? - The Mary Sue - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Is Ben Warren Coming Back to Grey's Anatomy Full Time? Jason George Says - Soaps.com - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Will Grey's Anatomy Have a New Spinoff After Station 19's Cancellation? - Soaps.com - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Meredith Grey's 11 Love Interests in 'Grey's Anatomy', Ranked - Collider - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Station 19 Series Finale' Subtle Grey's Anatomy Callback Made It Even Better - Screen Rant - June 1st, 2024 [June 1st, 2024]
- Of course, Grey's Anatomy has the perfect formula to make viewers cry - The A.V. Club - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy Delivered the Greatest Star Wars Reference of All-Time - CBR - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy: Shondaland EP Wants Pitches for Next Spin-Off - TheWrap - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- Video: 'Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes' | Anatomy of a Scene - The New York Times - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- Anatomy professor receives NWC Teaching Excellence Award - Northwestern College - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- Anatomy of a scroll: Inside TikTok's AI-powered algorithms - POLITICO Europe - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- The Anatomy of a University's Encampment Negotiation - The Chronicle of Higher Education - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy's Alexis Floyd on Simone Hitting 'Rock Bottom' (Exclusive) - PEOPLE - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- Researchers map out anatomy of wooden breast syndrome in broiler chickens - Phys.org - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy: Season 20, Episode 7, "She Used to Be Mine," Recap & Spoilers - CBR - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- Grey's Anatomy: The Kai Bartley Character Explained (& Where You've Seen The Actor) - Screen Rant - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]