Man behind the Machine matters Most, Always and Every time

Humans: The Final Arbiter in Battle Assessing morale and will to fight (adversary and own) is crucial to the science and art of war (Warcraft). Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a political scientist at New York University, reckons human will matters enough for many wars to be won by what starts off, in strict military terms, as the weaker side [i]. With very few exceptions, all wars and almost all battles are decided by matters of human will: breaking the enemys will to fight while sustaining ones own will to fight is the key to success in battle. Will to fight is the disposition and decision to fight, to keep fighting and to win.

Technology, Transparency and Modern Weapon Systems: Dilution of Human ImpactWith continuous and increasing emergence of modern, potent, accurate, and long-range weapon systems, technology including autonomous systems, and ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance), the essentially human nature of war is getting ignored. Many in the past have felt the same. Military history is, as a consequence, littered with disastrously wrong assumptions about belligerents will to fight. France (1950s), America and China (1960-70s), three UNSC members and major powers, for instance, famously underestimated the determination of Vietnams National Liberation Front when they intervened in Vietnam for their own strategic reasons and got a bloody nose instead. During the battle of DOGRAI on the Indo Pak border in the 1965 war, 3 JAT (Indian infantry battalion), known for their sustained dogged courage in battle, led by Lt Col Hayde, MVC achieved a superb victory against overwhelming odds. Lack of focus on the will to fight could create a vulnerable situation to many armed forces and nations forcing a critical situation. The best technology in the world is useless without the force of the will to use it and to keep using it even as casualties mount and unexpected calamities arise.

Use of Modern Computing to Quantify Morale and Will Behavioral scientists are now, bringing the power of modern computing to bear on the question. Defence planners have long used computers to forecast the results of conflicts by crunching data on things like troop numbers, weapons capabilities, ammunition supplies and mechanized forces, air and naval forces quantification. The next step, which will be hugely facilitated with the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific models, is to extend the idea into the area of morale, by quantifying the psychological variables that determine whether troops will flee, or stand and fight.

Important Definitions/Aspects pertaining to Will to Fight Predicting human behavior is not an exact science, however, we can significantly improve our understanding of an individual or a units will to fight by assessing and analyzing disposition[ii], which allows for an estimation of overall military effectiveness and forecasting of behavior. Wars rarely end simply because one military destroys another. Government and leaders determine how and when wars end, and they may have to decide many times during a conflict whether their country should continue enduring risk and sacrifice or whether it is time to stop fighting. Tangible factors, such as remaining force levels, logistical resilience, weapon systems, are obviously part of the decision calculus, but it is often less-tangible political and economic variables that ultimately determine what might be called a national will to fight. It is thedetermination of a national governmentto conduct sustained military and other operations to achieve their objective, even when the expectation of success decreases or the need for significant political, economic, and military sacrifices increases.

Pivotal Role of Influence Information and Psychological Operations (IIO and PSYOPS) affecting Morale and Will to Fight Confrontation/conflicts have moved from attrition to manoeuvre, and now to a combination of the above along with the cognitive domains of Information (Influence) Operations (IIO/IO) and Psychological Operations (PSYOPS). Nations would always prefer achieving their strategic aims without warfighting in the traditional sense, and impose their will using cognitive/non-kinetic domains. There are innumerable examples in military history where larger/stronger forces have lost purely because they lost morale and the will to fight. One very recent and extremely vivid and game changing event in history where IO and PSYOPS destroyed an Armys will to fight, is the Capture of Northern Iraq by ISIS. In the summer of 2014 the IS (ISIL/ISIS or Daesh in Arabic) roared into Northern Iraq in pick-ups and fully armed (even swords), and blew away four fully trained and equipped Iraqi divisions which vanished overnight into thin air.[iii] But, contrary to tradition, they did not keep their operations a secret but wanted the world to know everything about it. The IS succeeded in subverting the minds and weakening/destroying the will to fight of all commanders, troops and the local population psychologically. Closer home, despite an asymmetric superiority in comprehensive national power (CNP), military and multi-domain fighting capabilities of the Chinese PLA along the LAC in East Ladakh, the Indian Armed Forces operational and tactical superiority, combat experience, high altitude expertise, years of managing the LC/LAC, and the Indian jawans fortitude, raw courage and morale puts India Army on an equal (if not better) footing to negotiate.

Indian Army: Lack of Scientific Models to Evaluate Morale and Will to Fight In our Armed Forces, lot of emphasis is paid to attributes of a leader and the role of morale as important battle winning factors. Theoretical and practical aspects are covered for officers and troops at the initial training, courses and on the job. However, we have not really added its contribution (being intangible) when evaluating/or when carrying out a net-assessment (see definition in Notes[iv] of an adversarys military strength and potential. In our Armed Forces we do a mix of scientific model(s), and affix values to tangibles based on historical precedence/subject experts/ground experience/collective wisdom of group (Delphi system of management[v]). Indian armed forces needs to create models (specific to different situation/terrain/enemy) to assess value of own/adversarys intangibles like morale and will to fight, which has become vital in todays warfare.

Rand Corporation Report 2108[vi] on Will to Fight: An Overview In 2019, RAND published two reports for the US Army describing the will to fight[vii]. They found that there is no generally accepted definition, explanation, or model of will to fight. This means that armed forces and subsidiary forces have no central point of reference for understanding what is, according to joint doctrine, the most important factor in warfare. They created a three-step model to which they finally integrated will to fight in simulation, and needs to be incorporated in planning for actual combat situations.

Findings on Morale and FightingSpirit[viii]. Training, espirit-de-corps,morale, motivation, capabilities and culture are important facets contributingto the will to fight. After diligent research some interesting observations/conclusionsare bulleted as follows:

Famous/Historic Battles showcasing will to fight upsetting military superiority

Battle of Imphal-KohimaVery interestingly and proudly for the Indian Armed Forces and its troops, the battle of Imphal-Kohimaduring the Second WorldWar(WWII) was voted inBritainasBritainsmost hard fought and significantbattlein its entire history.[x] The Indian troops fought in horrendous jungle conditions of Nagaland, marked by vicious hand to hand fighting, when Japanese troops in large numbers crossed Burmese border. The Indian soldiers turned the tide against the Japanese army resulting eventually in their capitulation. The victory was of a profound significance because it demonstrated categorically to the Japanese that they were not invincible. This was to be very important in preparing the entire Japanese nation to accept defeat, Lyman said. This was the last real battle of British Empire and the first battle of the new India. The Indian troops werent fighting for the British or the Raj but for a newly emerging and independent India and against the totalitarianism of Japan.

Inspiring Quotes from Junior Indian Military Leaders. Afew quotes of our junior leaders during battle, showcasing the Indian ArmedForces indomitable will to fight, and which will inspire generations to come.

To every manupon this earth Death Cometh soon or lateAnd how can man die betterThan facing fearful oddsFor the ashes of his fathersAnd the temples of his gods Brig Mohd Usman (P) MVC; BattleOrder for Recapture of Jhangar

RecommendationsIndian Armed Forces should

ConclusionImproving understanding of morale and will to fight might not be a panacea, after all war is not won by silver bullets, but it is a vital factor that is routinely overlooked or misunderstood. Nations and militaries across the world are paying increasing attention to behavioral science to know an adversarial nations and militarys will to fight and their leaders mind. India and its professional armed forces must institutionalize/incorporate this pivotal aspect in their strategic and operational planning expeditiously.

[i] What motivates the dogs of war?, The Economist; Science and Technology, 05 Sep 2020 edition

[ii] Disposition- Soldiers and the units they form develop the disposition to fight or not fight, and to act or not to act, when fearing death. Disposition is essentiallylikelihood.

[iii] The event is widely covered and also paraphrased from Like War: The weaponization of Social Media by PW Singer and Emerson T.Brooking, An Eamon Dolan Book, Houghton Mifflin Harcout, 2018.

[iv] Net assessment is a complex and unconventional framework forthe strategic analysis of military balances. It measures the hard power ofnations in relation to each other, rather than each on its own terms.This kind of analysis, projected over the long-term, helps support moreeffective defence policies in conditions of military-strategic competition.Such a capability is urgently required today in view of the highly competitivenature of global geopolitics.

[v] Delphi system of Management available widely online; one link https://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html

[vi] As a firststep to understand will to fight, the RAND team undertook a literature reviewof more than 200 published works, reviewed U.S. and allied military doctrine,conducted 68 subject-matter expert (SME) interviews, and analyzed historicalbattles/campaigns/case-studies, war- gaming, and simulation.

[vii] Will to Fight: Returning to the Human Fundamentals of War, Rand Corporation,2019; Link- https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10040.html

[viii] Paraphrasedand adapted from numerous Think Tanks and online articles/papers, including ARTISInternationalwhich is a global scientific research organizationwhich focuses on behavioral dynamics affecting conflict. Its work is fieldorientated, and the fellows come from a wide variety of disciplines; also USAFAcademys Warfighter Effectiveness Research Centre (werc), in Colorado

[ix] Famous Indian battlespost-independence showcasing leadership and the troops indomitable courage,morale and will to fight are listed: Battlesof Rezang La, 18 November 1962; AssalUttar, 8-10 September 1965; Tololing, 20 May 13 June 1999; Nathu La and ChoLa, 1967; Laugewala; Meghna Heli Bridge; Chawinda; Dograi (all four 1971);Special mention to Battle of Saragarhi, 12 September 1897.

[x] Victory over Japanese at Kohima named Britains greatest battle, in Reuters

Lt. Gen. PR Kumar retired from the post of Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of the Indian Army. As DGMO he was responsible for the entire operational planning, preparation and execution of plans and border management. After his retirement he has been writing for numerous Think Tanks on international and national strategic issues and on security related aspects. He also delivers talks in Armed Forces and Educational institutions.

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Soldier's will to fight: Implications for Indian Armed Forces - News Intervention