Dr. Jeremy Kamil talks about genome sequencing

LSU Health Shreveport Dr. Jeremy Kamil talks about the importance of genome sequencing during COVID-19.

Scott Ferrell, Shreveport Times

The Alpha variant makes up most COVID-19 cases in the Shreveport area, but the Delta variant will soon become the dominant strain, experts say.

Vaccinated individuals should still have individual protection from serious illness from the Delta variant, said Jeremy Kamil, director of COVID-19 sequencing at LSUHealth Shreveport. But they can still spread it, and its still a threat to unvaccinated individuals.

Cases are already climbing in the area and beyond. Thats likely due to the combination of people resuming pre-pandemic behaviors and the greater transmissibility of the dominant Alpha variant, Kamil said.

More: COVID-19 cases surging again in northwest Louisiana

"The effects of those changes in human behavior, i.e. mixing indoors and not wearing masks and not social distancing at all are going to be amplified by having a more infectious or transmissible variant like Delta," Kamil said. "Every indication is that we are looking at another wave. I expect that its intensity will be somewhat controlled in a patchwork manner according to local vaccine uptake."

Communities with high vaccine hesitancy including Louisiana will see the worst effects of the next wave, both on health and on the economy, Kamil said.

The Delta variant can probably cause mild infections in a "decent chunk" of fully vaccinated people who are relatively healthy, but that would be really rare for the original virus, Kamil said.

"Most of the time, if this virus gets past the vaccine, it's not of a huge risk to the person who's vaccinated," Kamil said. "It is, however, a problem in Louisiana."

Only 32% of people in Caddo Parish are fully vaccinated, according to the Louisiana Department of Health. For the northwest region, which also includes Bossier, Bienville, Bossier, Claiborne, DeSoto, Red River, Sabine and Webster Parishes, only about 30% are fully vaccinated.

For some vaccinated people, they could catch the Delta variant but not transmit it, Kamil said. However, others could spread the variant in spaces like restaurants or movie theaters even if it's not a threat to them.

Some vaccinated people have gotten sick, which is called a vaccine breakthrough, but its rare, said Dr. Martha Whyte, Region 7 medical director at the Louisiana Department of Health. For people with underlying health conditions such as diabetes, the vaccines may be slightly less protective.

More: Genomic sequencing coming to a city near you with the help of Rockefeller Foundation

In general, the original virus could be transmitted via 10-15 minutes of unmasked, indoor contact between people, Kamil said. For the Delta variant, that could be reduced to 3-5 minutes.

"The absolute first thing everybody needs to do is get vaccinated. And people, no matter what your fears are, it's better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it," said Whyte.

The next thing is to social distance as much as you can. If you're hanging out with friends and you don't know their vaccine status, wear a mask, Whyte said.

She said if you're not vaccinated and youre in public, wear a mask. If you're vaccinated but youre in a group of people, wear a mask.

If someone is on the fence about getting the vaccine, Whyte recommended they get their questions answered. They should ask her, their doctor or their friends who have medical knowledge, Whyte said.

"Get your fears allayed, questions answered. And then make your decision, and remember your decision isn't just for you. It's to protect you, people you love and even people you don't know in your community," Whyte said.

Just because you're younger doesn't mean you can't become severely ill or even die from COVID-19, Whyte said.

"This virus is so strange that ... you can't tell who's going to get really sick and who's not, Whyte said. You've got 102-year-old women who do fine, and you have I had a good friend who lost his 19-year-old son, healthy as a horse, and died on the vent."

The Delta variant is already here, but its not the dominant strain yet. The Shreveport-area population is more dispersed, but we will likely see Delta take over in coming weeks, Kamil said.

"...All of a sudden, we'll just see only or mostly Delta. It'll just be like a shift," Kamil said.

Alpha also took a while to take hold in the area, then it suddenly became the strain for 90% of cases, Kamil said. Large urban areas, such as Houston, already see mostly Delta in their sequencing.

Kamil said the vaccines are still quite effective in preventing individual sickness in relatively healthy people.

He used the following analogy to compare the efficacy of the protections generated by the vaccines to the newer variants of the virus: The CIA and FBI are trying to track down someone, and the suspect puts on a disguise.

More: Here's where LSU Health Shreveport is administering COVID-19 vaccines this week

"Maybe the person grows a beard and puts on sunglasses and a fake wig that's blond. Do you think that's going to fool the CIA and the FBI for very long? I mean it might slow them down, but is it absolutely going to block their ability to see them?" Kamil said.

At the end of the day, most of the community is not fully vaccinated, and Kamil and Whyte agreed the vaccines are the best way to protect yourself and others from the Delta variant.

"We're seeing society open up as if the pandemic's over. There couldn't be a bigger mistake. The pandemic's not over, especially if you haven't gotten the vaccine," Kamil said. "The thing about Delta is, it's very transmissible."

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Delta will become dominant strain, but vaccinated individuals should have protection - Shreveport Times