Photo:Evers/Eclipse Sportswire

While the conformation of a horse is important both in the sales ring and on the track, Im referring to a different kind of anatomy, one that reveals how a Kentucky Derby long shot is put together that led to him breaking through to get on the board at a huge price.

What makes him stand out among the other 11 to 13 long shots who also will go off at odds of 20-1 or higher in a 20-horse Derby field?

The Kentucky Derby Super Screener is a 20+ year, ongoing data study that strives to uncover the data patterns that separate winners from the rest of the field, identify vulnerable low-priced types and isolate those few long shots that have the best shot to hit the superfecta at a huge price. Currently, 25 screening criteria are used to achieve those outcomes.

But just because a horse doesnt score well as a win candidate doesnt mean he couldnt score high as a key long-shot pick to finish second, third or fourth at 20-1+ odds. That is why we also have a separate set of Super Screener Top Long Shot criteria that is used to take those horses who are eligible through a second screening process to assess their specific relative break-through potential versus the rest of the long shots in the race.

While I wont share our proprietary formula for isolating the top long-shot candidates, I will provide you with an insiders view into many of the criteria that can sort out the bombers with the best shot to hit the superfecta from those who have no shot at all.

Check out the Kentucky Derby Superfecta chart that we put together each year. I have highlighted the nine long shots that have hit the Superfecta over the past 10 years with odds ranging from 26-1 to 85-1.

Note that with the exception of the chalky 2015 and 2016 editions of the Kentucky Derby, at least one monster long shot has hit the superfecta. In 2017, two horses managed to land in the trifecta to produce mind-boggling payouts.

One probably would guess that you would see more long shots hitting the bottom of trifectas or superfectas. But note that over half of those nine long shots finished second. It is when these long shots finish that high in the order that the exotic payouts are gargantuan.

I went back and pulled together the past performances of these nine long shots for you and created a chart that will help narrow in on many of the separators that would have provided you with the conviction to have included those horses in your exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers.

So, lets dig in

Energy distribution profile

This gives you a glimpse into what goes into the anatomy of a Kentucky Derby superfecta-hitting long shot. But the Super Screener Top Long Shot criteria includes 20 variables in total that we analyze to derive a final long shot score. For the first time, we will be providing a horses overall Super Screener score, and for eligible long shots, their Super Screener long shot score as well.

Key things to remember when looking for your key long shot this year:

Pick up your Kentucky Derby Super Screener now at picks.horseracingnation.com.

Read more from the original source:
The anatomy of a right-priced Kentucky Derby long shot - Horse Racing Nation