Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, gather round because The Anatomy of An Inning is back. My name is Jacob Roy, and I pretend to know pitching better than the pitchers themselves. Over the off-season, I spent hours upon hours pouring over pitching stats, watching old starts, and speculating on what changes may be coming for Red Sox pitchers. With real game action kicking off, its time to dive back into the outings inning by inning, pitch by pitch, and find out if the box score tells the whole story.
The Red Sox rotation came into the season with question marks from one to five. Unfortunately, there are only so many hours in the day, and I can only write so many breakdowns each week. Ill be sure to get to everyone, but I want to talk about Kutter Crawford first. Partially because I consider myself the worlds earliest Kutter Crawford truther, but also because what he did on Saturday is a significant shift from the Crawford weve seen in the past.
Well go to the sixth inning with the score tied 1-1. Crawford has been efficient thus far, entering the inning at just 61 pitches. J.P. Crawford leads off for the Mariners, seeing Crawford for the third time. Ill note that last season, the 49 hitters who saw Crawford for a third time posted a 1.142 OPS, an issue that needs to be sorted if the righty wants to establish himself as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Kutter starts the at-bat with a curveball that gets away from him. Typically, Im all for the first pitch off-speed pitch to steal a strike when most hitters are looking for fastballs. In this case, Im a little more apprehensive because he started the previous at-bat with a curveball that Crawford put into play. Either way, the rightys release point is off and the ball is well above the zone for ball one.
Heres just the second fastball J.P. has seen today, well located at the top of the zone for a called strike. With the amount of induced vertical break on that pitch, its incredibly difficult for a hitter to square up if the shortstop were to swing. 1-1.
Heres a cutter that should be on the inner half, but starts too far outside and stays away. It may be a strike with a robot umpire, but its hard to ask for that call when you miss your spot and the catcher has to reach for it. Now, behind in the count, Crawford should look to throw strikes in areas where he can get weak contact. Against a lefty, a cutter up and in is a good option.
A beautiful sweeper this time that starts away and finishes middle. The lefty is way out in front, indicating hes looking for a fastball. Kutter has two options: either double down on the off-speed pitches even further from the zone or give the hitter the fastball hes been hunting. Normally, Id say throw the sweeper again, but because Crawford has only thrown 14 fastballs to this point and didnt throw one in a 2-1 count, the hitter may feel that hes not going to get one at all and Crawford can get one by him.
Filth. Kutter opts for the latter, pumping a fastball up and away that J.P. swings right under.
Heres another hitter that hasnt seen a fastball today. Through two at-bats, here are the pitches hes seen. Nothing but sweepers, cutters, and a slider.
First pitch four-seam fastball that misses inside. I love the idea here, just not the execution. This pitch should be on the inside edge, where if Rodriguez swings expecting the heavy diet of cutters and sweepers, hell get jammed and become a quick out. If he takes, its called strike one. Unfortunately, Crawford misses too far inside and is behind 1-0.
Cutter, skipped in for ball two. Now Crawford has to be careful with a dangerous hitter at the plate.
Heres another cutter for a called strike. Julio thinks its high, but the vertical drop brings it back down to maybe clip the top of the zone. At 2-1, Crawford should still be careful and even look to induce a weak ball in play. Another inside fastball could work here.
Statcast has this pitch as a cutter, but at only 82 MPH it may be a slider. Either way, he actually misses his spot as he wants this one down and away. Fortunately, it doesnt miss over the heart of the plate and Rodriguez fouls it out of play.
Heres an interesting one and something I dont know that Ive seen from Crawford before. Wong calls for a four-seamer and sets up low and away. Normally, Id advocate for Crawford to keep his fastball up in the zone, but this pitch has been set up over the last two at-bats. Ten of the eleven pitches Rodriguez has seen to this point have been moving away from him. If he sees a pitch that starts on the outside edge, hes likely to let it go, assuming it will continue to tail further out of the strike zone. Because its a four-seamer though, it would have stayed over the outside edge for called strike three. Its a good idea in practice, but poor execution from Crawford as the pitch misses upstairs and Rodriguez fouls it away again.
See what I mean? Crawford throws his sweeper this time that starts over the edge and finishes off the plate. Rodriguez thinks about it but recognizes its not going to be a strike and stops his swing to run the count full. The result here tells me that the previous pitch likely would have been a backward K with better location.
Now this is cool. I see pitch sequencing as a game of cat and mouse. Throw pitches the hitter isnt expecting and they become that much harder to hit. In his third trip time against Rodriguez, Crawford showed the fastball twice at 0-0, looking to get ahead of the hitter. Now, at 3-2, Rodriguez is likely looking for another fastball and instead sees another off-speed pitch. The confidence to execute breaking balls and off-speed pitches in a full count is incredibly valuable for pitchers, and Crawford did exactly that here against one of the games best hitters.
First pitch curveball at the bottom of the strike zone for called strike one. Hitters typically arent looking for 0-0 breakers, so executing these can be free strikes.
Polanco shows bunt, and Crawford lands a sweeper to get the count to 0-2. As always, at 0-2, throw anything that isnt good to hit.
Crawford doubles up on the sweeper and fools Polanco who barely gets a piece with the end of his bat. Id prefer to see this further below the zone, but thats nitpicking. Good pitch.
Another sweeper, this time too inside for ball one. Id go away from the sweeper after three consecutive.
Fastball above the zone for ball two. Another good idea, but it needs to be closer to the zone to get a swing.
Sweeper outside to run the count full.
And finally, a cutter that falls out of Crawfords hand to put Polanco on first base. Hell be disappointed in himself for walking a hitter after going up 0-2.
Crawford starts the at-bat with a cutter low and away. Haniger tries to check his swing, but cant hold up and gets called for strike one. The swing here tells me Haniger wants to be aggressive and get a fastball to hit.
Haniger gets the fastball he wants and fouls it off to right field. Poor location from Crawford who wants to keep this inside but instead leaks over the plate. 0-2, you know what to do (Dont throw something good to hit).
This is as good of an 0-2 pitch as you can throw without getting an out. Crawford goes with a sweeper and hits his spot down and away. Haniger has no interest, probably because hes only seen two fastballs to this point in the game, and both have been up in the zone. He sees a pitch down and knows to let it go.
Heres the pitch that Crawford tried to throw Julio Rodriguez, but executed perfectly. Haniger, seeing down and away again, lets this go as hes expecting it to spin out of the zone. Instead, it stays straight and gets the outside edge of the zone for called strike three. Each at-bat influences the next one, and this pitch works because of how Crawford has attacked hitters to this point. In this outing, the game plan was to throw more breaking balls, opening the door for the low and away fastball.
This wasnt Crawford at his best as he missed a few spots in the inning and threw a few extra pitches as a result, yet he still managed to get through six while only allowing a run. Overall, a more varied pitch mix should help Crawford get deeper into games, something the pitching staff needs to stay afloat throughout the season. The more unpredictable your pitches are, the more difficult it becomes for hitters to develop an approach. Andrew Bailey will get a lot of credit for the game plans, but we shouldnt overlook the fact that Crawford, and the other starters, have made the adjustments and executed well. Keep an eye out for more game-by-game changes in strategy as the season progresses.
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The Anatomy of An Inning: Kutter Crawford's Offspeed Heavy Debut - Over The Monster