The virus, known as Covid-19, has only recently emerged as the prevailing issue in the presidential race, but its spread has been rapid.

Amy Klobuchar used precious debate time on Tuesday to plug the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website. Michael Bloomberg was the first to cut an ad attacking President Trump about it Wednesday. Elizabeth Warren put out a plan Thursday to swap funding for a border wall for efforts to contain the flus spread. And everyone from Joe Biden to Pete Buttigieg to Bernie Sanders to Tom Steyer wrote tweets and sent out statements on the topic.

Then there was Trump himself, holding a news conference Wednesday evening where he appeared as focused on the political fallout as he was on the spread of the illness.

"Because of all we've done, the risk to the American people remains very low, he said.

But if the president is wrong, the political impact could be catastrophic.

Dr. Sandro Galea, dean of Boston Universitys School of Public Health, said Trump made a mistake in being so definitive that coronavirus wont spread widely within the United States.

The moment there is an outbreak in the country, his credibility on this issue is shot, Galea said. History shows us that with epidemics, government leaders need to be honest and clear about what they know, what they dont, and what needs to happen next. Credibility is a big deal.

Beyond presidential trust, a significant spread of the coronavirus could alter the way that campaigns are conducted.

Ahead of a tight national election in Israel next week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stopped shaking hands with voters, and special polling places have been set up for coronavirus patients.

If such precautions become de rigueur in the United States, it could mean no more Warren selfie-lines or rallies for any candidate even Trump.

If we do have a widespread coronavirus outbreak, then there will be a lot of social-distance measures taking place that would impact a number of gatherings and assemblies, Galea said.

The past is prologue when it comes to public health crises disrupting politics.

In 2014, the Ebola outbreak in West Africa shook up campaigns, including the US Senate race in New Hampshire, in which Republican Scott Brown hammered the incumbent, Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, with accusations the Obama administration wasnt responding forcefully enough.

Shaheen won, but it gave Brown a closing argument in ads and on the debate stage.

When something bad happens in the world, the incumbent gets blamed, said Republican strategist Ryan Williams, who was a consultant for Brown in the 2014 Senate race.

Alec T. Beall, a postdoctoral fellow in the psychology department at the University of British Columbia, presented an academic paper about the impact of the Ebola scare on the 2014 midterm elections.

Beall said recent political research agreed with Williams that incumbents are often blamed for a pandemic, which could be bad for Trump if the outbreak spreads.

At odds with this, however, is research into human behavior that shows evolutionary instincts kick in when theres an infectious disease outbreak and people who may be perceived as posing an infection risk, such as immigrants from unfamiliar countries, are used politically as scapegoats.

Traditionalist attitudes and xenophobic policies are characteristic of political conservatism," Baell said. "Therefore, if people begin to feel greater vulnerability to Covid-19, they may become more likely to express conservative political attitudes and to show greater support for conservative political candidates in upcoming elections.

Beyond the virus itself, the economy is nearly certain to ripple through the race for the White House.

Polling by the Pew Research Center found that the 2008 race tipped toward Democrat Barack Obama after the investment banking giant Lehman Brothers collapsed. The crisis became a centerpiece of the campaign coverage, which turned increasingly negative for Republican John McCain.

The severity of any economic effects will be key to the Republicans political fortunes, strategists said.

The health of the economy is President Trumps central rationale for reelection, Williams said. If theres a significant downturn caused by this outbreak, it could have serious implications.

Its less clear what impact, if any, the outbreak could have on the Democratic primary.

Jon McHenry, a Republican strategist, said Bloomberg may be the only candidate whos really able to capitalize on it.

He has the money, and therefore the flexibility, to say this is the issue right now" and to start running ads about how he is the best manager to tackle the problem, he said.

For now, its unclear how the coronavirus scare will play out on the battlefield of politics. But Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said the issue could break through a lot of the political noise of the Trump era.

Voters may not care how many days Donald Trump spends at Mar-a-Lago, whether hes besties with Vladimir Putin, Setzer said. But every soccer mom in America just ran out and got the flu shot for her kids, and theyll be watching very closely.

James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell. Victoria McGrane can be reached at victoria.mcgrane@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @vgmac.

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Coronavirus could be the most important issue of the 2020 election - The Boston Globe