Back in April, health experts warned Kaiser Health News, a leading provider of health news and information, that a one-day peak in cases would not signal that the tide had turned against the new coronavirus.Two months later, what's clear in Hamilton County is that the trend here is sharply up and there's no clear sign of a peak.

On June 18, the county recorded at least 100 new COVID-19 positive patients for the first time. Since then, seven more days (including Sunday, the last day for which data are available) have exceeded 100 cases.

Scientists use averages to figure out the ups and downsof infectious diseases such as the virus. With the coronavirus, they oftenuse one of three different averages to track trends in new cases.

State officials feature the 21-day moving average on Ohio's coronavirus dashboard. It accounts for the 10 to 14 days that it takes for many people to display symptoms once they've been infected by the virus. (Except that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates 35% of the infected never show symptoms, a number lower than found in some studies.)

Twenty-one days ago, Hamilton County's21-day average of cases was 38, according to an Enquirer analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 tracking project. On June 18, that first date of 100-plus cases, the 21-day average was 45. By June 22, when the county had a single-day record of 191 new positive results, the average was 61. A week later, on June 28, it was 89.

With new case totals over 100 foreach of the last five days, the 21-day averagewill keep going higher this week with no plateau, much less a decline, on the horizon.

The average of new cases sometimes is expressed in other ways.

The seven-day average is used by the Associated Press and other news organizations. Hamilton County's seven-day average is 138 cases, nearly double from the level on June 18 (when that first 100-plus count was reported). The White House coronavirus task force used the 14-day average, keeping in mind the virus' incubation period, when it set up criteria for reopening businesses, schools and the like. The county's 14-day average is 115 cases, more than twice the reading on June 18.

Bottom line: All three averages have risen sharply at the end of this month.

The result: State and even federal officialsare worried we haven't seen a peak in Hamilton County. The county was among the hot spots nationally discussed by Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine in a conference call with Vice President Mike Pence, head of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force.

What do other numbers tell us?

1. A measure of the coronavirus that's based in part on community spread is flashing red in Hamilton County, as well asin Butler, Kenton and Warren counties.

The measure is the R0 (spoken asR-naught, pronounced AHR-nawt)or reproductive number. Data from the Health Collaborative, a consortium of hospitals in the Cincinnati area, show the virus' R0 in the four counties is above one.The R0indicatesthe number of people, on average, that one infected person will subsequently infect. Any reading above one indicates infections are rising. But it's worth noting that the R0 is an estimate anddifficult to calculate (in part because it measures human behavior, which can change abruptly).

2. Infection rates are highest among younger people in the region, with the positive test rate for those ages 20-30 at over 10%.

The Health Collaborative data show the positive rate in this age group rose in the second half of June to above 10% even as the positive rate fell in all other age groups.

The local data mirrors a national trend. People under 45 made up 42% of cases before Memorial Day weekend but 55% of cases reported since then, USA TODAY analysis has found.

The trend holds in places where new cases are surging and in those that are not, according to the analysis of data from 25 states and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

3. Local hospitals have room but beds are filling

Hospitalizations are rising across the Cincinnati region.The number of COVID-19 patients in Hamilton County's hospitals has doubled from a low of 65 people on June 11 to more than 130 this weekend, DeWine said at his Monday news conference.

The Health Collaborative's dashboard showed the region's hospital and ICU beds just under 80% occupancy on Sunday. So there's room for more patients, but not the surplus of space that existed inearly May, as the pandemic was easing.

In addition, more young people are ending up in the hospital with COVID-19, an Enquirer analysis of state data shows. People under 40 accounted for 11% of Hamilton County hospitalized cases in March and April. But that rose to 19% in May and stands at 37.4% so far in June.

Kaiser Health News and USA TODAY contributed.

Excerpt from:
Coronavirus in Ohio: No single number captures the pandemic. But watch this one. - Massillon Independent