Human behavior is behind second COVID wave in Massachusetts, study suggests; predicts the state could exceed – MassLive.com

As the COVID pandemic continues, more people are comfortable going to the gym, restaurants and visiting friends. But thats all contributing to the second wave in Massachusetts, a new study suggests.

The study published by a group of researchers at Northeastern, Harvard, Rutgers, and Northwestern universities said the current trajectory of COVID-19 in Massachusetts is deeply worrisome.

After dropping to a low of 200 cases per day in early July, the pandemic has resurged with a vengeance. Rates of new daily cases roughly doubled between July 1 and October 1, then again from October 1 to November 1, then again in just 10 days from November 1 to 11, reaching well over 2000 cases a day, the study says. If the current growth rate persists, the case counts would exceed 10,000 per day by December.

On Tuesday, state health officials confirmed another 2,225 coronavirus cases.

These numbers would overwhelm current hospital capacity, the study says.

But with changes, this can be reversed, the study states.

The good news, and the bad news, is that human behavior is likely driving the resurgence, the study said. This means that infections need not continue to explode in Massachusetts, but also that real changes in behavior (and policy) may be required to bring it back under control.

The study found that in April and May, less than 5% reported going to a restaurant in the past 24 hours. By October, that number increased to 15%. During that same time, less than 1% of people said they were going to the gym. In October, that number was 7%. And the number of people visiting friends or other non-household members in enclosed spaces doubled.

These patterns are not just the result of individual choices, but of policy decisions, since many of these establishments were closed in the spring, the study states.

Gov. Charlie Baker has issued a stay-at-home advisory, setting a curfew and requires businesses to close by 9:30 p.m.

Were doing much better than many other states and many other countries, but hereto weve let down our guard, he said.

But the study states this could actually be adding to the problem.

It is possible that some measures, such as limiting the hours restaurants are open, might actually make matters worse, because it may result in more people being in a restaurant at any given hour, the study states.

Mask wearing, however, has increased.

The commonwealth is reporting among the highest levels of adherence anywhere in the country, at about 80% very closely following mask-wearing guidelines.

Many have also been taking advantage of being outside, something that cant happen as frequently during the winter months.

More aggressive action now might avoid more draconian measures later, when our hospitals are beyond capacity, the study said.