Cassie Dickman|The Record

Coronavirus infections and hospitalizations are continuingon a downward trend in San Joaquin County following a post-holiday surge that lasted through the beginning of January. But that doesn't meanthe county is out of the woods just yet.

San Joaquin Countycould remain in the purple tier,the most restrictive ofthe COVID-19 pandemic classifications, for at least several more weeks, county Public Health Officer Maggie Park said.

"There's really no way to really predict because so much of it depends on human behavior," Park said told the county's Board of Supervisors at its meeting Tuesday.

There is also some concern about what might be coming in the next few weeks due to Super Bowl get-togethers, Park said.Variants in the virus that were recently discovered to have entered the country could also affect spring infection rates, she said.

California returned to its four-tiered system of county-by-county restrictions last month after a majority of the state was placed under strict lockdown orders in December to keep hospitals from being overrun.The color-coded tiers are part of the statewide Blueprint for a Safer Economy and indicate which activities and businesses are open based on local case rates and test positivity.

Park said the county's COVID-19 positivity case rate of 31.7 per 100,000 population was well above the state's threshold rate of 7 per 100,000 to move into the less-restrictive red tier.

"So we still have a ways to go," Park said.

California's purple tierallowsfor businesses such as restaurants to resume outdoor operations, while hair and nail salons are also allowed to reopen. Other local businesses, such as bars that only serve beverage, still cannot be open.The county has not qualified to be in the red tier since the middle of November.

But Park said the county has seen a drastic reduction in COVID-19 case rates in the last month.

The county saw an adjusted case rate in the 70s as recent as the week of Jan. 19. It has since dropped more than 40 points.

"We came down very rapidly actually," Park said. "So if we keep to progress, it could be in a month or two."

San Joaquin County saw an average weekly rate of more than 4,500 new COVID-19 cases from the end of November into the New Year, according to county public health data. The week ending Jan. 9 saw the highest number of COVID-19 cases since the pandemic began, soaring past 5,000 for the first time since the pandemic began.

In the weeks that followed, newly confirmed coronavirus cases have steadily continued to drop. Public health data reportsthe week ending Feb. 6 sawjust under 1,300 new cases.

"The surge that we had during the November to December timeframe is coming down nicely," Park said Tuesday.

Park also noted that hospitalization rates in the county have followed suit.

"We are finally below the number that we had in the hospital at the summertime peak," Park said.

The county's seven area hospitals are currently treating 130patients that have contracted the virus, the county's Emergency Medical Services Agency reported Wednesday afternoon. That's more than 130 less than the summertime high of 262 patients.

However, Park noted intensive care units are still at 0% bed capacity. County hospitals have a total of 99 licensed ICU beds, which have largely remained full for months.

As of Wednesday, county hospitalsreported treating 130 adult ICU patients, 56 of which have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Park said Tuesday that 41 patients being treated at county hospitals were on ventilators.

"We still have some quite sick people in our hospitals and the numbers are still higher than, of course, we would like them to be," Park said.

County EMS also reported four people had died from COVID-19 from Tuesday to Wednesday.

San Joaquin County has seen 64,396total cases of COVID-19 since the pandemic began and 929deaths from the disease, according to the county's COVID-19 information dashboard. About 3,646 of reported cases have still not yet recovered.

Record reporter Cassie Dickman covers Stockton and San Joaquin County government. She can be reached at cdickman@recordnet.com or on Twitter @byCassieDickman. Support local news, subscribe to The Stockton Record athttps://www.recordnet.com/subscribenow.

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San Joaquin County likely weeks away from seeing COVID-19 restrictions eased further - Stockton Record