BERLIN, GERMANY - DECEMBER 02: Police officers take security measures as a group against Covid-19 ... [+] measures named "Querdenken 30 " gather in front of ZDF television channel's building located at Unter den Linden street to protest media outlets in Berlin, Germany on December 02, 2020. Protesters hold banners and chant slogans as they march in front of buildings of media outlets such as Axel Springer, Funke, Tegesspiegel, Berliner Verlag and Tageszeitung. (Photo by Abdulhamid Hosbas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Since the beginning of the pandemic, psychologists and social scientists have been working diligently to understand the best ways to encourage people to comply with Covid-19 directives.

A new working paper published by researchers at the University of Amsterdam suggests they are having an easier time figuring out what doesnt work than what does.

It turns out, for instance, that deterrence efforts such as punishment severity and punishment certainty do little to move the needle.

Deterrence, in the form of both punishment severity and punishment certainty, is not linked to compliance in the majority of studies, state the researchers, led by Dr. Emmeke Kooistra. This indicates that fining people for not following the Covid-19 social distancing measures the major intervention for authorities to increase compliance will most likely not result in more compliance.

They hedged this conclusion a bit, saying it would take more research to fully understand the relationship between deterrence measures and behavioral compliance.

The critical question, however, is what can be done right now to increase compliance. Analyzing the combined results of 45 studies conducted during the first wave of the pandemic, the authors offer the following three suggestions.

#1. Self-interest reigns supreme

People are more likely to comply with social distancing directives to the extent that they view Covid-19 as a serious threat. To be exact, 22 out of the 34 studies that measured the perceived threat of the virus found it to be a significant driver of compliance behavior.

People comply because they see a benefit in doing so: it keeps themselves, friends and family, and possibly society at large safe from the disease, state the researchers. For authorities, this means that they should keep informing the public of the risk of the disease, and especially in between peaks when fear of disease may reduce temporarily.

Also playing into the self-interest equation is peoples age. Older people, in general, are more likely to comply with social distancing guidelines than younger people. They also happen to be more susceptible to the viruss negative effects.

Psychologists and behavioral economists are quick to point out the limits of rational self-interest as an explanation for human behavior, however. In this case, it fails to explain why women exhibit higher coronavirus fear and greater compliance than men even though data show that men have higher Covid-19 mortality rates than women. It also fails to explain why punishments such as fines havent been all that effective at increasing social distancing compliance.

#2. Psychological factors are an important part of the equation

The researchers found a strong relationship between the personality trait of impulsivity and Covid-19 compliance. Impulsive individuals were far less likely to follow social distancing guidelines.

They also found that negative emotional states such as depression decreased the likelihood that people would keep up with social distancing directives.

The finding that people with feelings of depression are more likely to violate the rules should be a warning for policymakers that they should not disregard mental health in their attempt at preserving physical health, state the researchers.

#3. Situational factors also make a difference

Perhaps the best way to encourage people to remain compliant is by tapping into the power of social norms. Of the studies analyzed, two-thirds showed that people who were more likely to see others complying with the rules, or who were more likely to feel socially judged by not complying, were more compliant overall.

People who believe that others follow the rules are more likely follow the rules themselves, state the researchers. Accordingly, [policymakers] may benefit from emphasizing the group of people that do follow the measures, as opposed to the group that does not.

Conclusion. Until a vaccine is ready, behavioral change is the best weapon we have in the fight against Covid-19. The authors conclude, These insights provide vital theoretical lessons about crisis-induced behavioral change and compliance with policy measures.

Full coverage and live updates on the Coronavirus

Read more:
Three Science-Backed Ways To Increase Covid-19 Compliance (And One Way Not To) - Forbes