Following months of collecting data and updating models, the Virginia Department of Health and modelers with the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute wrote on Friday that it's important for Virginians to understand that models help show trends but don't predict the future.

Every week, modelers write in their Data Insights Report that models are used to show what could happen with COVID-19 and are not designed to predict what will happen. As the pandemic has worn on, the data collected has become comprehensive and leads to a change in modeling from the early days of the pandemic.

Previous models showed a worst case scenario for Virginia that simply mapped a full rebound of COVID-19 spread onto the state in the long run a scenario that was not meant to be predictive, modelers wrote, but was useful to show a range of possible outcomes.

In a very real sense, the goal of models is to be wrong, modelers wrote. By alerting people to the likely consequences of the status quo, they change the future. By definition, modeling infectious disease transmission requires predicting human behavior. This is always difficult but presents particular challenges for a novel virus.

While models projecting what could happen in the future are prone to change, the constant collection of data has been useful to see how the state is adapting to the virus.

On Friday, the VDH reported the reproduction rate in Virginia remained below 1.0 and that statewide the weekly case rate is lower than the national average the United States is averaging 14,600 cases per 100,000 people and Virginia is averaging 11,000.

Modelers are projecting that Virginia will have recorded 205,931 cases by Thanksgiving.

The VDH reported 941 new cases, 37 new hospitalizations and 23 new deaths on Friday, bringing its total to 144,433 cases, 10,806 hospitalizations and 3,136 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. Total figures include 7,150 probable cases, 85 probable hospitalizations and 206 probable deaths.

The Lord Fairfax Health District reported 12 new cases, no new hospitalizations and one new death on Friday, bringing its total to 3,072 cases, 266 hospitalizations and 111 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. Total figures include 333 probable cases, one probable hospitalization and 10 probable deaths.

Local cases

Frederick County has had 873 cases, 66 hospitalizations and 13 deaths.

Shenandoah County has had 805 cases, 87 hospitalizations and 58 deaths.

Winchester has had 495 cases, 35 hospitalizations and four deaths.

Warren County has had 415 cases, 24 hospitalizations and seven deaths.

Page County has had 390 cases, 42 hospitalizations and 29 deaths.

Clarke County 94 cases, 12 hospitalizations and no deaths.

Regional cases

Harrisonburg has had 2,578 cases, 93 hospitalizations and 34 deaths.

Rockingham County has had 1,414 cases, 115 hospitalizations and 21 deaths.

Schools and

universities

James Madison University reported on Friday it had 89 active cases and 1,385 cases considered to be recovered since July 1. The university has had 855 students, staff and faculty self-report positive COVID-19 tests.

The University Health Center conducted 24 COVID-19 detection tests on Thursday and returned two positive test results. The health center has conducted 2,588 tests since July 1 and returned 619 positive results giving the health center a positivity rate of 24.07%.

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