Review and short-term geocosmics
Employers are already having a hard time rehiring some employees who are now making much more in jobless benefits. Beyond the damage to life and livelihood, the greatest threat from the coronavirus are policy mistakes that prolong the economic pain. Democrats want to use the pandemic as an excuse to put government in charge of much more of the private economy. Now Mr. Trump wants to limit Americas supply of human talent. If they succeed, we will wake up in 2021 having defeated Covid-19 but at the high cost of a diminished economic future. Trumps Immigration Distraction, Wall Street Journal editors, April 22, 2020.
Somebody sees the same outlook for the American (and world) economy in 2021 as we have been warning about, based on the three-passage series of waning squares between Saturn (in Aquarius) and Uranus (in Taurus). This one will be especially critical because it follows the Saturn/Pluto conjunction of January 2020. As detailed in our most recent webinars, the seven most serious U.S. stock market declines of the last 120 years have occurred from highs that took place when hard aspects between Saturn/Pluto and Saturn/Uranus unfolded within one calendar year of each other. That happened in 2000-2001, 2008-2009, and is occurring again in 2020-2021.If correct and we may have seen the culmination of the all-time stock market high for a while in February 2020.
An interviewer asked me last week if this possibility of a further economic and/or stock market decline ahead frightens me. To which I replied, No. First, we have already experienced the greatest shock part of this decline, created by the governments induced recession in order to combat the greatest health threat of our lifetime, the Covid-19 coronavirus. The lethality of this virus has peaked, according to John Berry, author of The Great Influenza on the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, in an interview with Gerry Baker on Fox Business News, April 17. It also fits with my previously forecasted view that a peak in panic would likely be during the three conjunctions of Mars to Jupiter, Pluto, and Saturn, plus the Jupiter/Pluto conjunction, March 20-April 4. Stock markets around the world collapsed and made an important bottom then. Second, I see this idea of a second wave down in the economy and stock market in 2021-2023 as one of those exceptional lifetime buying opportunities. So, rather than fear, I am approaching this period as an opportunity. It feels much better seeing the future as a rare lifetime buying opportunity than a dire, dreaded time of further losses with no escape and recovery, as if the world will end. Its a cycle, not a termination.
Still, the current market behavior is most interesting, especially if you appreciate symmetry (and what astrologer doesnt?). Many of the worlds stock indices made multi-year and all-time highs around February 20. They then crashed into their lows one month later, around March 20. Then, they started an impressive rally that topped out one month later, around April 20 (actually April 17-20). Our next three-star critical reversal date (CRD) is scheduled for one month later, the weekend of May 15-18. Are we in store for another severe decline into then? Its possible, especially when you consider that the rally into the high of April 17-20 (an MMA two-star CRD zone) was approximately a 50% correction of the moved down from the highs of around to the crisis lows of around the March 20 period. But of course, there are other factors to consider, like market cycles. Many market cycles were due to bottom around March 20 (March 20-31 especially), as outlined in the Forecast 2020 Book and our monthly, weekly, and daily subscription reports prior to that low.
As expected from last weeks column, the U.S. Congress passed another large stimulus program after the Sun/Saturn square of Tuesday, April 21 was completed. That day was also monumental in the field of financial markets because the price of Crude Oil declined to -$40/barrel! Its never been below zero, which means the value of Crude Oil was essentially worthless that day. It wasnt just a long-term cycle low. It was below a price that no one ever imagined. That was the day before the new moon, which was in square aspect to Saturn, and approaching a conjunction to Uranus. It may be a preview of the type of chaos (and opportunity) coming up in 2021 when Saturn makes its exact square to Uranus.
Aside from Crude Oil, most financial markets were relatively quiet last week, following the pattern outlined in last weeks column based on geocosmic conditions. That is, stock markets and precious metals made their weekly lows on Tuesday, then rallied the next two days as the new moon unfolded, then pulled back a bit into early Friday, before rallying again by the close on Friday, as we head into the Sun/Uranus conjunction this weekend, April 26. It is possible we could see a similar up and down pattern next week as Mercury will square Saturn on Tuesday, April 28, followed by its conjunction to Uranus on April 30. And then the unemployment reports will come out Friday, May 1. After that, the retrogrades of Venus, Jupiter and Saturn, May 11-14, are apt to exert their correlation to market reversals in many financial markets.
Short-term geocosmics and longer-term thoughts
No one enjoys perfect safety anytime, anywhere The country will be required to go through a process group by group, community by community, sector by sector as it gradually moves to a safe-enough normal Because the gradual re-opening will start before mass testing is fully available, mistakes are inevitable. The people will accept imperfection, but only if leaders are willing to acknowledge error and change course.William A. Galston, America Again Faces Fear Itself, Wall Street Journal, April 22, 2020.
Social distancing will give way to millions of years of learned human behavior. People wont stay cooped up indefinitely The most persuasive argument for the lockdowns from day one was flattening the curve to avoid collapsing the hospital system. Americans by the millions acceded to that suppression strategy and accomplished its goal. Post-peak coronavirus will be a battle, but it wont be D-Day. The whole country just did coronavirus D-Day and we survived. With or without official permission, people are going to self-release from their coronavirus isolation and get back to business. These are not Trumpian mobs. It is not the rise of anti-science. It is humanity re-establishing social equilibrium. Daniel Henninger, How Well Live with Coronavirus, Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2020.
The purpose of this column is educational. It is to provide understanding of the correlation of cycles in the cosmos to cycles in human activity, and specifically as it pertains to financial matters and other areas of human activity that directly or indirectly affect the cycles in financial markets (i.e. economy, central banking activity, politics). The purpose is not to forecast the outlook for financial markets (that is the purpose of MMA daily, weekly, and monthly subscription reports), although sometimes these correlations will be applied in this column to get across an educational point. With that in mind, lets use this weekends Sun/Uranus conjunction in Taurus as an educational opportunity to understand the correlation between a cosmic cycles and collective behavior and sentiment.
On Sunday, April 26, the Sun and Uranus conjoin in the sign (not constellation) of Taurus, a cosmic event that occurs approximately once a year, plus 3-5 days. The Sun/Uranus conjunction is one of the most powerful geocosmic correlations to the culmination of primary cycles in stock markets as reported from the studies published in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles. These studies showed it had an 83% correlation to a primary cycle crest or trough within an orb of 14 trading days. It also showed that it had an 83% correlation to 4% or greater reversals from an isolated low or high that formed within 4 trading days. These are unusually high rates of frequency, which is why the Sun/Uranus conjunction is considered a Level 1 (most consistent and most powerful) geocosmic signature used in our methods of financial market timing.
Our market studies of periods in which Uranus is highlighted (by aspect or station retrograde/direct) illustrates the erratic, unpredictable, and often chaotic behavior that astrologers have long ascribed to this planet. Without any warning, events or announcements are often made that few expect, leading to abrupt turns in the direction of market prices. Sudden rallies or declines oftentimes happen, and they can be very sharp as well as very brief. These are not easy times for position trading, for one day the market can be very bullish, and the next day it can suddenly become very bearish, especially during this 4-day orb surrounding the Sun conjuncts Uranus. We are in that orb now, and we are witnessing markets opening sharply up or down from the prior days close. There seems to be no flow to the markets in the past week, but instead abrupt changes, often overnight before the opening.
Now lets look at the underlying dynamics of this particular conjunction in the sign of Taurus, and how it is corresponding with todays collective reality. The Sun rules the sign of Leo, and Uranus rules its opposite sign of Aquarius. Thus, the Sun and Uranus are by nature like an opposition, which is a principle of conflict but also awareness. Both Leo and Aquarius are fixed signs, which relates to fixed patterns of behavior, which itself is predicated upon fixed or firm beliefs. Their conjunction occurs in Taurus, which is also a fixed sign, making this particular conjunction act like a fixed T-square pattern known to astrologers. Therefore, we see tension arising between expectations and realities that are in a natural conflict. In this case, the conflict can involve security (Taurus), freedom to engage in group gatherings (Uranus), and the drive to do something creative and fun (Sun).
Many in society want businesses and venues for social gatherings to re-open. As Daniel Henninger correctly writes in the quote above, people want to seehumanity re-establishing social equilibrium. People want to make plans to travel, to go out and get together in groups. But they also want to feel safe and secure (Taurus).They are in conflict about what to do because they do not know when they can feel free again (Uranus) and what the costs will be (Taurus) to make a plan, and not have to change it (Uranus). Taurus hates changing plans. The Sun in a hard aspect to Uranus may protest boldly, loudly, and with defiance, even willing to cause disruptions risk of safety to others who wish to go about their normal routines.
However, in terms of how this conflict will impact our future plans and activities, one will need to be flexible and nimble. That is always the anecdote for what ails a fixed sign affliction, which this conjunction of the Sun and Uranus in Taurus surely is. The more fixed one is with their expectations, and the more one is demanding or unwilling/unable to adapt to or initiate changes due to circumstances outside of their control, the more stressful this becomes. It can lead to disruptive behavior that in turns leads to chaos.
Fortunately, this aspect is in effect for one week. We see the protests last week against mandates for social distancing and other restrictions to re-opening businesses and social activities. But it is important to observe this now because it may be a prelude to the year 2021, where a much more prolonged geocosmic signature will play out with similar themes: the Saturn/Uranus square, also in fixed signs (Aquarius and Taurus).
I also bring this up now because in a couple of weeks, Venus (the ruler of Taurus) will go retrograde (May 13-June 25). This period is not likely to be a quick shot back to normal for the economy or for society in general. It is more like two steps forward, one step back, until sometime following late June through the second half of July. With Uranus prominent at the new moon in Taurus, square Saturn (plans) last week, and with Venus about to go retrograde, planning any social activity (like travel, vacations, entertainment) will be challenging because we just wont know. The rollout of the re-opening of the economy is likely to be uneven, with some countries, some states, and some communities opening before or later than others, with unintended and unexpected consequences to follow.
Venus (social activity, relationships, and money) is turning retrograde in Gemini, square Neptune on May 13, which indicates greater than usual confusion, disillusionment, and even disappointment at having to cancel or change plans, much to the chagrin of those who have a majority of natal planets in fixed signs (Taurus, Leo, Scorpio, Aquarius). But it is also Jupiter (travel and another indicator of the need for social activity) and Saturn (boundaries, rules, and limitations) going retrograde. Half the world wants to break loose (Jupiter) and the other half wants to scold them for doing so, even make them pay a consequence a penalty (probably monetary) for violating rules.
As to how this affects financial markets, Venus and Saturn retrograde (May 10-13) are right up there with the Sun/Uranus conjunction as Level One geocosmic signatures correlating with the culmination of primary or half-primary cycles. Venus retrograde is also a period when central banks often make unexpected announcements or policy reversals that create great activity in financial markets. You may remember that Venus last turned retrograde on October 5, 2018, a time when the Fed started raising interest rates and the world stock markets began a mini-panic into late December 2018. This 19-month geocosmic cycle also occurred on March 6, 2009, which was the bottom of the Great Recession stock market decline, the 72-year cycle trough in stocks. Venus was also retrograde when the bottom of the stock market occurred during the Great Depression on July 8, 1932. It is not a 100% correspondence, but its rate of frequency to primary or greater cycles is close to 80% within an orb of 12 trading days.
How should one approach these periods? Looking for opportunities that are sensible, affordable, and of good value, especially in 2021-2022. It is probably not a good idea to invest in a large scale, multi-marketing, worm farm, if you know what I mean. Those who are overly obsessed with fear and rigidity may miss opportunities when they are present. And these are the times when such opportunities arise, and you will likely know it when you see it. But will you have cash and the courage to act?
More:
Weekly Column: The greatest threat from the coronavirus are policy mistakes - FXStreet
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