If you've been reading coronavirus news coverage, you've likely stumbled across a reference to a term called "R0." It's been on the tips of world leaders' tongues in recent months, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel's, whose R0 explanation garnered a striking 9 million views on Twitter in April.
Pronounced "R-naught," the reproductive number is an indicator of how contagious a disease is, or how easily it spreads from person to person in a community. The number is important because government leaders are using R0 as a proxy for determining whether their respective COVID-19 outbreaks are growing, shrinking and or holding steady.
Crucially, R0 is not a fixed number. It's a jumping off point that's influenced by many factors, including human behavior.
People relax in circles marked on the grass for proper social distancing at Brooklyn's Domino Park during the coronavirus outbreak, May 18, 2020, in New York. The circles were added after the park, which offers excellent views of the Williamsburg Bridge and the Manhattan skyline, became severely overcrowded during a spate of warm weather.
The reproductive number of a virus, or R0, is the number of people, on average, that one infected person will subsequently infect. The naught in R0 refers to the zeroth generation of a disease, as in "patient zero." A higher R0 means more people will be infected over the course of the outbreak. A lower number means fewer people will be infected over time. That replication will continue if there are no vaccinations against the illness or immunity in the population.
Because that number is imprecise and variable, it's often expressed as a range.
Here are a few examples:
If R0 is 1, each infected person infects just one other person, on average. Over time, the number of infected people will remain the same.
If R0 is less than 1, each sick person is infection fewer than one person, on average, so the number of infected individuals will shrink over time. In case case of COVID-19, and R0 of less than 1 means lockdown measures could be eased.
If R0 is greater than 1, each sick person is infecting more than one person, on average, so the outbreak will grow. So, lockdown measures may need to remain in place.
And while R0 = 1 and R0 = 2 might seem close, "the difference between a reproductive number of 1 and a reproductive number of 2 is huge, in terms of the number of people who will ultimately be infected," Emily Gurley, an associate scientist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health explained during an online course she teaches about contact tracing.
"Everything we can do to help us get the reproductive number closer to 1 will help us control the spread of a disease," Gurley added.
People wearing masks walk past an recently reopened bar in the East Village amid the coronavirus pandemic, May 14, 2020, in New York City.
Measles, which is one of the most infectious diseases that scientists know of, has an R0 of about 15. (While there's some dispute about this number, measles is frequently cited as having an R0 between 12 and 18 in scientific literature.)
With an R0 of 15, every person infected with measles will go on to sicken 15 additional people.
On the other end of the spectrum, MERS, or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, another type of coronavirus, has an R0 lower than 1, meaning on average, each infected person infects less than one other person. Because of that low reproductive number, MERS does not usually result in large disease outbreaks.
A safe and effective vaccine is not expected until at least 2021, so how does herd immunity work, and how can this method help in getting us back to our lives and preventing the spread of COVID-19?
For now, scientists have calculated the R0 of the novel coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, meaning each infected individual will infect to two to three additional people, on average.
As a historical comparison, the R0 of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic is estimated to have been between 1.4 and 2.8, according to an article published in BMC Medicine.
They're numerous.
Some government leaders have framed their discussion of R0 as a race to get below 1, but like many scientific concepts, R0 is more complicated than a one-time race to success.
R0, which involves modeling, can change from place to place and is impacted by human behavior. It involves imperfect and different estimates based on assumptions and educated guesswork by scientists. As researchers aptly noted in a paper published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases last year, R0 is "easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied."
As in the case of measles, scientists continue to disagree on the R0 of even diseases they've been studying for decades.
In the United States, the COVID-19 outbreak has not been uniform. Different regions, states and cities have had their own micro-outbreaks, which are on different timelines, making it hard to assign one R0 to the entire country. New York City, Seattle and Chicago may have very different R0 numbers than one another.
That's not to say governments shouldn't try to lower their R0 numbers. Though imperfect, it's a useful proxy for estimating how the lockdown and reopening policies of states and cities are working -- or not.
Tune into ABC at 1 p.m. ET and ABC News Live at 4 p.m. ET every weekday for special coverage of the novel coronavirus with the full ABC News team, including the latest news, context and analysis.
See original here:
What is R-naught for the COVID-19 virus and why it's a key metric for re-opening plans - ABC News
- Human behavior is driven by fifteen key motives - Earth.com - February 25th, 2025 [February 25th, 2025]
- Nature Human Behavior is back, this time touting allyship - Why Evolution Is True - February 25th, 2025 [February 25th, 2025]
- 30 Times Courtrooms Became The Stage For The Strangest Human Behavior - Bored Panda - February 3rd, 2025 [February 3rd, 2025]
- The Impact of AI on Human Behavior: Insights and Implications - iTMunch - January 23rd, 2025 [January 23rd, 2025]
- Disturbing Wildlife Isnt Fun: IFS Parveen Kaswan Raises Concern Over Human Behavior in Viral Clip - Indian Masterminds - January 15th, 2025 [January 15th, 2025]
- The interplay of time and space in human behavior: a sociological perspective on the TSCH model - Nature.com - January 1st, 2025 [January 1st, 2025]
- Thinking Slowly: The Paradoxical Slowness of Human Behavior - Caltech - December 23rd, 2024 [December 23rd, 2024]
- From smog to crime: How air pollution is shaping human behavior and public safety - The Times of India - December 9th, 2024 [December 9th, 2024]
- The Smell Of Death Has A Strange Influence On Human Behavior - IFLScience - October 26th, 2024 [October 26th, 2024]
- "WEIRD" in psychology literature oversimplifies the global diversity of human behavior. - Psychology Today - October 2nd, 2024 [October 2nd, 2024]
- Scientists issue warning about increasingly alarming whale behavior due to human activity - Orcasonian - September 23rd, 2024 [September 23rd, 2024]
- Does AI adoption call for a change in human behavior? - Fast Company - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Dogs can smell human stress and it alters their own behavior, study reveals - New York Post - July 26th, 2024 [July 26th, 2024]
- Trajectories of brain and behaviour development in the womb, at birth and through infancy - Nature.com - June 18th, 2024 [June 18th, 2024]
- AI model predicts human behavior from our poor decision-making - Big Think - June 18th, 2024 [June 18th, 2024]
- ZkSync defends Sybil measures as Binance offers own ZK token airdrop - TradingView - June 18th, 2024 [June 18th, 2024]
- On TikTok, Goldendoodles Are People Trapped in Dog Bodies - The New York Times - June 18th, 2024 [June 18th, 2024]
- 10 things only introverts find irritating, according to psychology - Hack Spirit - June 18th, 2024 [June 18th, 2024]
- 32 animals that act weirdly human sometimes - Livescience.com - May 24th, 2024 [May 24th, 2024]
- NBC Is Using Animals To Push The LGBT Agenda. Here Are 5 Abhorrent Animal Behaviors Humans Shouldn't Emulate - The Daily Wire - May 24th, 2024 [May 24th, 2024]
- New study examines the dynamics of adaptive autonomy in human volition and behavior - PsyPost - May 24th, 2024 [May 24th, 2024]
- 30000 years of history reveals that hard times boost human societies' resilience - Livescience.com - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Actors Had Trouble Reverting Back to Human - CBR - May 12th, 2024 [May 12th, 2024]
- The need to feel safe is a core driver of human behavior. - Psychology Today - April 15th, 2024 [April 15th, 2024]
- AI learned how to sway humans by watching a cooperative cooking game - Science News Magazine - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- We can't combat climate change without changing minds. This psychology class explores how. - Northeastern University - March 11th, 2024 [March 11th, 2024]
- Bees Reveal a Human-Like Collective Intelligence We Never Knew Existed - ScienceAlert - March 11th, 2024 [March 11th, 2024]
- Franciscan AI expert warns of technology becoming a 'pseudo-religion' - Detroit Catholic - March 11th, 2024 [March 11th, 2024]
- Freshwater resources at risk thanks to human behavior - messenger-inquirer - March 11th, 2024 [March 11th, 2024]
- Astrocytes Play Critical Role in Regulating Behavior - Neuroscience News - March 11th, 2024 [March 11th, 2024]
- Freshwater resources at risk thanks to human behavior - Sunnyside Sun - March 11th, 2024 [March 11th, 2024]
- Freshwater resources at risk thanks to human behavior - Blue Mountain Eagle - March 11th, 2024 [March 11th, 2024]
- 7 Books on Human Behavior - Times Now - March 11th, 2024 [March 11th, 2024]
- Euphemisms increasingly used to soften behavior that would be questionable in direct language - Norfolk Daily News - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Linking environmental influences, genetic research to address concerns of genetic determinism of human behavior - Phys.org - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Emerson's Insight: Navigating the Three Fundamental Desires of Human Nature - The Good Men Project - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Dogs can recognize a bad person and there's science to prove it. - GOOD - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- What Is Organizational Behavior? Everything You Need To Know - MarketWatch - February 4th, 2024 [February 4th, 2024]
- Overcoming 'Otherness' in Scientific Research Commentary in Nature Human Behavior USA - English - USA - PR Newswire - February 4th, 2024 [February 4th, 2024]
- "Reichman University's behavioral economics program: Navigating human be - The Jerusalem Post - January 19th, 2024 [January 19th, 2024]
- Of trees, symbols of humankind, on Tu BShevat - The Jewish Star - January 19th, 2024 [January 19th, 2024]
- Tapping Into The Power Of Positive Psychology With Acclaimed Expert Niyc Pidgeon - GirlTalkHQ - January 19th, 2024 [January 19th, 2024]
- Don't just make resolutions, 'be the architect of your future self,' says Stanford-trained human behavior expert - CNBC - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Never happy? Humans tend to imagine how life could be better : Short Wave - NPR - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- People who feel unhappy but hide it well usually exhibit these 9 behaviors - Hack Spirit - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- If you display these 9 behaviors, you're being passive aggressive without realizing it - Hack Spirit - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Men who are relationship-oriented by nature usually display these 9 behaviors - Hack Spirit - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- A look at the curious 'winter break' behavior of ChatGPT-4 - ReadWrite - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Neuroscience and Behavior Major (B.S.) | College of Liberal Arts - UNH's College of Liberal Arts - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- The positive health effects of prosocial behaviors | News | Harvard ... - HSPH News - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- The valuable link between succession planning and skills - Human Resource Executive - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Okinawa's ants show reduced seasonal behavior in areas with more human development - Phys.org - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- How humans use their sense of smell to find their way | Penn Today - Penn Today - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Wrestling With Evil in the World, or Is It Something Else? - Psychiatric Times - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Shimmying like electric fish is a universal movement across species - Earth.com - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Why do dogs get the zoomies? - Care.com - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- How Stuart Robinson's misconduct went overlooked for years - Washington Square News - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Whatchamacolumn: Homeless camps back in the news - News-Register - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Stunted Growth in Infants Reshapes Brain Function and Cognitive ... - Neuroscience News - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Social medias role in modeling human behavior, societies - kuwaittimes - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- The gift of reformation - Living Lutheran - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- After pandemic, birds are surprisingly becoming less fearful of humans - Study Finds - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Nick Treglia: The trouble with fairness and the search for truth - 1819 News - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Science has an answer for why people still wave on Zoom - Press Herald - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Orcas are learning terrifying new behaviors. Are they getting smarter? - Livescience.com - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Augmenting the Regulatory Worker: Are We Making Them Better or ... - BioSpace - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- What "The Creator", a film about the future, tells us about the present - InCyber - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- WashU Expert: Some parasites turn hosts into 'zombies' - The ... - Washington University in St. Louis - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Is secondhand smoke from vapes less toxic than from traditional ... - Missouri S&T News and Research - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- How apocalyptic cults use psychological tricks to brainwash their ... - Big Think - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Human action pushing the world closer to environmental tipping ... - Morung Express - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- What We Get When We Give | Harvard Medicine Magazine - Harvard University - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Psychological Anime: 12 Series You Should Watch - But Why Tho? - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- Roosters May Recognize Their Reflections in Mirrors, Study Suggests - Smithsonian Magazine - October 27th, 2023 [October 27th, 2023]
- June 30 Zodiac: Sign, Traits, Compatibility and More - AZ Animals - May 13th, 2023 [May 13th, 2023]
- Indiana's Funding Ban for Kinsey Sex-Research Institute Threatens ... - The Chronicle of Higher Education - May 13th, 2023 [May 13th, 2023]
- Have AI Chatbots Developed Theory of Mind? What We Do and Do ... - The New York Times - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]
- Scoop: Coming Up on a New Episode of HOUSEBROKEN on FOX ... - Broadway World - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]
- Here's five fall 2023 classes to fire up your bookbag - Duke Chronicle - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]
- McDonald: Aspen's like living in a 'Pullman town' - The Aspen Times - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]