Travelers in Beijing taking a warranted precaution with face masks.

Nicolas Asfouri/Getty Images

The new coronavirus has infected over 900 people and killed 26. The recently-sequenced virus has spread from its point of origin, China, to Europe and the U.S., where the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has now confirmed two cases. Almost all of the cases are still concentrated in China, where prevention efforts have shut down Shanghai Disneyland, part of the Great Wall of China, and several McDonalds. The New York Times calls it a rapidly expanding outbreak which has fueled fears of a global pandemic. So how worried should you be? Weve sifted through the news and spoken with to two researchers who have studied similar kinds of viruses to find out.

Is it time to panic?

No. The important thing to remember is that while there are a lot of cases, a lot of them are not severe says Tracey Goldstein, a professor in the department of pathology, immunology and microbiology at the University of California, Davis. Im not worried right now about my personal risk. If youre going to be coming in contact with a lot of people, its prudent to wash your hands. But thats mostly because were in the middle of flu season.

But there are still concerns, right?

I think that our first concern can rightly be the people in China, says Columbia epidemiologist Simon Anthony. Both because of the virus, and because of the vigorous response, which is a hassle even if warrented: China has shut down outbound travel from Wuhan, where the virus originated. Wuhan resident Yasin Gaardo has been posting videos to Twitter, of police blocking a road, and of a supermarket running out of vegetables. Public transportation is locked up90 percent of Wuhan people are staying inside, he told CNN. I can say Im worried but Im not in panic mode right now. Perhaps as you should be.

The alarming part might be the speed at which the virus is spreading. The rapid pace is part of why it keeps making newsits an important global health story, even if most individuals are not personally at riskand the constant news fuels the feeling of panic. Im certainly more concerned now than I was a week ago, said Anthony, noting that the respiratory nature of the virus makes it relatively easy to spread from human to human. Theres also, he said, the fact that it brings back memories from SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.

What kind of memories from SARS?

SARS also spreads via the air, through coughing, and traveled around the globe causing panic. And though SARS was more severe, both are coronaviruses. A coronavirus is a kind of virus with a spiky crown-like exterior that affects the respiratory tracts and guts in mammals. There are more than 3,000 species of coronavirus, but they are most commonly found in bats, as Goldstein and Anthony describe in a study in which they tested everything from humans to shrews. Just seven species (with the addition of this new virus) are known to affect humans. One of those is actually the cause of the common cold, to which the symptoms of coronavirus in many cases are similar, though complications of this new one can include pneumonia and sepsis. Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), of which there was an outbreak in 2012, is another coronavirus. The new virus does not appear to be as deadly as MERS (34 percent mortality rate), or SARS (10 percent)its death rate is 4 percent.

Why doesnt the new coronavirus have a catchy name like MERS or SARS?

Technically speaking, its name is 2019-nCoV, short for 2019 Novel Coronavirus. Colloquially its going by a few things including Wuhan coronavirus. But as Helen Branswell points out in a piece for Stat News, the World Health Organization frowns on labeling diseases after a place or region. Its stigmatizing. It also doesnt really point out anything helpful about the virus.

Sure, but, why did it originate in Wuhan? Is that random?

Sort of! Theres quite a few things that need to align, says Goldstein, for a virus like this to make the jump to humans. Not only do humans need to come into contact with a bat (or snake), or other animal that the bat/snake has come into contact with, but the machinery of the particular species of virus needs to be able to infect humans. This coronavirus seems to have originated at market with animal meat.

OK, SARS, MERs, now this. Are these kinds of outbreaks becoming more frequent? And should we worry about that?

It does seem like theres been an uptick. There are two reasons for that, explains Goldstein. It might be that were just better at detecting and tracking the spread of viruses. But also, were moving around more; flying and interacting with more species, says Goldstein. The thing that definitely has changed is we are such a global world now.

Originally posted here:
How Worried Should You Be About the New Coronavirus? - Slate