News Study by UChicago professor finds that the South Side will be hit the hardest by the influx of newly insured patients from the Affordable Care Act.

A study published in the journal Health Affairs by University of Chicago Medical Center (UCMC) Associate Professor Elbert Huang forecasts that 29 million people will be insured for the first time in 2014 as a result of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), requiring 7,200 more primary care providers at a time when prospective doctors are being driven into more lucrative specialty areas.

The likely influx of insured patients has medical researchers, practitioners, and leaders in the industry worried that the South Side of Chicago, particularly the neighborhoods of Lawndale and Englewood, will be hit especially hard because of the number of currently uninsured people.

Englewood, for example, is predicted to see a 10 percent increase in demand for primary care, requiring the addition of four doctors to the existing group of 40 practitioners in the neighborhood.

In absolute numbers it doesnt seem that bad, but this doesnt account for the fact that the baseline 40 people already represents a shortage. Also, whos going to do it? Four doctors who open a clinic? A provider who expands? Huang said.

Attempting to meet the increasing demand of primary care physicians, the federal government has prepared incentives to accompany the implementation of the ACA, offering a 10 percent hike in salary to primary care doctors choosing to work in medically underserved areas.

But Huang is skeptical of how effective these incentives will be.

Such incentives are never designed on any empirical data. They are entirely designed on what can be affordable, Huang said. Also, we dont know if these incentives have been noticed by people. Im quite concerned that its not enough. The [salary] gap between specialists and primary care practitioners is much more than 10 percent.

Non-governmental institutions are taking matters into their own hands. For instance, the Pritzker School of Medicine, the UCMC, and the Urban Health Initiative are encouraging current medical students to choose a career in primary care.

Pritzker Associate Dean of Students James Woodruff, M.D., has noted a trend of student interest in practicing in underserved areas and as primary physicians in the last five years. According to Woodruff, this correlates with the schools concrete steps to grow and develop mentorship programs, classes, volunteer opportunities, and scholarships emphasizing service learning and working in underserved communities.

Read more:
Under ACA, doctor supply won’t meet demand